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Cross-Cutting Themes · No. 69

Checklist Thinking

The discipline of writing down what you must not forget, precisely because your mind can't be trusted to remember it under pressure.

Charlie Munger · Poor Charlie's Almanack

Munger's own answer to the 25 psychological tendencies catalogued in Poor Charlie's Almanack was not willpower — it was a checklist. A pilot doesn't rely on memory before takeoff, no matter how many hours they've flown; a decision-maker facing bias, incentive, and fatigue shouldn't either.

— Charlie Munger, Poor Charlie's Almanack

01 Why Memory Fails Under Pressure

The Checklist Approach

Systematic, Written, Repeatable

  • Forces every relevant factor onto the table before a decision is made, not after.
  • Doesn't depend on the decision-maker remembering to be skeptical in the moment.
  • Catches errors caused by fatigue, urgency, or a high-status person in the room.
  • Improves over time as each miss gets added to the list.
Relying on Memory Alone

Intuitive, Unrecorded, Fragile

  • Exposed to whichever of the 25 psychological tendencies is active that day.
  • Confidence and competence are easy to confuse in the moment.
  • The same mistake can recur because nothing was written down the first time.
  • Under time pressure, the most important step is often the first one skipped.

02 From Cockpit to Boardroom

1935: A Fatal Gap

A new Boeing bomber prototype crashed on a demonstration flight after an experienced crew missed a single control-lock step.

A Written Pre-Flight Checklist

Pilots adopted short, simple checklists for routine but critical steps, rather than trusting expertise alone.

A Culture, Not Just a List

Checklist discipline became standard across aviation, then spread to surgery, and to Munger's own investment process.

03 Case Studies

Aviation

The Origin of the Pre-Flight Checklist

After a 1935 crash involving Boeing's new bomber prototype was traced to a single missed step, test pilots developed a short written checklist rather than concluding the aircraft was simply "too much plane for one man." Checklist discipline became a cornerstone of aviation safety culture from then on.

Medicine

Atul Gawande's "The Checklist Manifesto"

Surgeon and writer Atul Gawande's 2009 book documented how a simple surgical safety checklist, tested across hospitals internationally, measurably reduced complications and deaths — extending aviation's checklist logic into an entirely different high-stakes field.

Investing

Munger's Checklist Against His Own Biases

Munger treated the 25 psychological tendencies described in Poor Charlie's Almanack as a personal pre-flight checklist for investment decisions — a deliberate, written counterweight to the overconfidence, incentive-driven reasoning, and social proof that undermine even experienced investors.

04 Building Your Own Checklist Discipline

01

Write down the mistakes you've actually made before — a checklist built from real failures, not hypothetical ones.

02

Keep it short enough to actually use under pressure; a checklist no one reads is decoration.

03

Run it before the decision, not after — the point is prevention, not a post-mortem.

04

Apply it especially when you feel most confident — that's when tendencies like overconfidence do the most damage.

05

Revise it every time it fails to catch something; treat each miss as new material.

A written checklist doesn't insult your intelligence — it accounts for the fact that intelligence alone has never been proof against bias.
Charlie Munger, Poor Charlie's Almanack